Market Update - Nov 2011

1Dec 2011

The FSSTI gained 0.5% to 2,702.5 as investors remained cautious over the euro zone debt crisis and the credit rating downgrade of major European and US banks. STX OSV gained 5.3% to S$1.185 after it secured a contract worth Kr1.2b for the construction of a research vessel. The broader market saw 163 gainers and 175 losers, with trading value amounting to S$1.31b.

US markets rallied after the Federal Reserve and five other central banks agreed to reduce the cost of offering dollar financing through swap arrangements. The DJIA gained 4.2% to 12,046 and the S&P 500 index gained 4.3% to 1,247. The ADP employment report also reported an increase of 206,000 jobs in November. Gainers outpaced losers 7:1 on the NYSE, where 1.7b shares were traded.


09-11-2011 (UOBKH)
16:13:00: Wilmar Q3 result hits shares, bullish on sugar, palm prices
14:27:14: GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares up on Italy reform hopes, cooling China inflation

01-11-2011 08:38:49
Singapore Stocks-May fall on new EU worries; CapMall Trust in focus


Nov 1 (Reuters) - Singapore shares may open lower on Tuesday after losses on Wall Street overnight on new worries about Europe's debt crisis as Greece called an unexpected referendum on the new EU aid package.
-CapitaMall Trust , which owns shopping malls, may be in focus after it raised S$250 million ($199.7 million) after setting the price of its private placement of new units at the bottom of the S$1.79-S$1.85 range. The trust announced on Tuesday that it is selling 139.7 million new units for S$1.79 each to fund the upgrade of its properties and investments.

*Wall St down as MF Global falls victim to Europe. Bonds soar as stock losses fuel safety buying [US/] > Yen wary of more intervention, euro sags; Gold eases as dollar soars on Japan intervention; Oil edges lower on dollar, but posts monthly gain

*Stocks and factors to watch: -
- NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES (NOL) - the world's seventh-largest container shipping firm, reported on Monday a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss of $91 million, compared to a $282 million profit a year ago. It also warned of a possible full-year loss for the year ended December
- Suntec REIT said on Monday it plans to invest S$410 million to upgrade its retail and commercial asset Suntec City.

Market News - 市场日记 October 2011

27-10-2011 08:15:59
Singapore Stocks-May rise after US gains; GMG in focus

SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Singapore shares are likely to rise on Thursday following gains on Wall Street overnight, helped by some progress in Europe to resolve its sovereign debt problems.

Rubber firm GMG Global may be in focus after it said it plans to raise S$349.4 million ($273.7 million) through a rights issue of 3.84 billion new shares at S$0.091 each. Shareholders will be offered one rights share for every one ordinary share held.

Bare-bones EU debt deal news enough for buyers; Bonds fall as euro zone progress hurts safety bid; Euro hangs tough as Europe hammers out deal; Gold rises 1 pct on uncertainty over EU summit; Oil falls as U.S. crude stocks rise [O/R]

Stocks and factors to watch:

-- SATS LTD - Singapore food and aircraft ground handling firm SATS said on Tuesday it has sold Daniels Group, its non-aviation food business in Britain for as much as 164 million pounds ($262 million).

-- MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST - which owns industrial assets, said its distribution per unit for July-September was 2.05 Singapore cents, which exceeded its forecast by 10.8 percent.

Its earnings were driven by positive rental revisions and contributions from newly acquired factories in Singapore.

-- CHINA DAIRY - said on Tuesday that a unit of Fraser and Neave , one of its large shareholders, is in talks to sell its 29.5 percent stake in the firm to potential buyers.

-- SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD - said on Tuesday it will be part of a consortium that will develop 715 hectares of land near the the Chinese city of Nanjing.

-- SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD - the world's second-largest airline by market value, will unveil the name of its new low-cost carrier and some of the destinations it will fly to on November 1, the company said on Tuesday.

- Straits Times Index rose 0.33 percent on Tuesday to 2,769.94 points.

- The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.39 percent to 11,869.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.05 percent to 1,242.00. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2,650.67.

Market Update 市场日记 - Aug 2011

10 Aug (Wed):
Overall Market:
- The market went thru a roller coaster ride for the past week. The bear came in having a big fight with the bull. Before the fight is settled, one might be more prudent to consolidate one's portfolio and cash while revising/keeping a watch list of only the quality and trendy stocks.
- STI this week breached the 2920 support level, if failed to hang on, next level is ~2650.
Watch List:
- sectors: defensive utilities with high yield; selected commodities and resources
- companies with substainable themes and concepts (e.g iPhone-related, China-national development/policy related, S'pore offshore & marine-related)

3 Aug (Wed):
Overall Market:
- Market up for one day yest after resolution of US debt ceiling issue; today the market concerns shift to the fundamental issue of possible recession in US and slow in growth of emerging markets.
- Overnite, Dow -265, FTSE -56; tis morn (10am) Jap/Aust markets opened down ~1.6-1.8%
- Palm Oil up ~3130, C. Oil ~93, Gold goes higher ~1660
Last Week:
- sold more OCBC holdings @9.93 (near 6-mo hi) last Thu as it seemed shy of getting near te $9.97 barrier (but on Monday it managed to leap to 10.09 b4 retreating to 10.02 staying above $10)
Today:
- most stocks gapped down esp those lead movers (HK gaming stocks, ..)

27 July (Wed):
Overall Market
- More or less continued the trend from prev day with the US debt ceiling issue still unresolved.
- End of the day, HSI & STI closed not much changed (~-.1 & +.2% resp.)
Today:
- closed OCBC (@9.83) and StraitsAsia (@3.06) long positions for a small gain to preserve capital for other opportunities

Market Update - July 2011

27 July (Wed):
Overall Market:
- More or less continued the trend from prev day with the US debt ceiling issue still unresolved.
- End of the day, HSI & STI closed not much changed (~-.1 & +.2% resp.)
Today:
- closed OCBC (@9.83) and StraitsAsia (@3.06) long positions for a small gain to preserve capital for other opportunities

26 July (Tue):
Overall Market:
- overnite Dow -88 and Gold up further ~1616 with US debt uncertainty, Silver ~40+; Crude Oil ~99, Palm Oil corrected 40 to 3100. FTSE -10. Tech stocks were fixed: Baidu up 10 pt (~6%) while TI down 1%
*This Week:
Monday: PP on SLM (880) and partly on OCBC as they bounced off Resistance (19.9 and 9.9 resp.).
Watch Lists:
SG: (+) OSIM (reversal?), Kepland, F & N, SembCorp, M1; (-) NOL, CityDev.
HK: Consumers (887, 1114, 1828), Gaming (1928, 200), Banks (1128, 3988, 939).

22 July (Fri):
Overall Market:
*Overnite Dow jumped 152 pts; commods mixed: Gold ~1590, Silver ~39, Oil up ~99+; but Palm Oil some profit taking ~3130; FTSE +46. Overall sentiment improved due to Greek assistance package agreement and strong tech stock (Apple, ..) results.
*This Week:
- Yest long First Tractor(38) @10.26 (Break Weekly Peak:10.24)
- KepCorp announced improved results n $0.17-dividend
*Watch list:
- SG: (rebound/reversal) SGX, CityDev
- HK: (Consumer) 116(Chow S.S.), 738(La Saunder)

20 July (Wed):
Overall Market:
*Overnite Dow jumped 200 pts; commods mixed: Gold ~1590, Oil 97+; but Palm Oil recovered to ~3135; FTSE +31.
*This Week:
- Today long OCBC on BR 9.60 (major res.)
- Monday, long SJM(880) on BR19.20 2nd time within a week
*Watch list:
- HKG: (Commod) PetroChina, Jiangxi Copper, Anhui C.; (Banks rebound?) ABC 农行，ICBC 工行, ..
- SG: CityDev (rebound?), GentS (downtrend?), ...

16 July (Sun):
Overall Market:
*(Friday) Dow closed +42; commods firmed: Gold 1595, Oil 97; but Palm Oil dropped -0.9% to 3116; FTSE -3.
*Watch list:
- HKG: SJM, Air China
- SG: CWT, HL Asia, ...

12 July (Tue):
Overall Market:
*(morning) Overnite Dow retreated (-1.2%) over concerns with Euro debts, gold stays ~1540+ while oils weakened crude oil ~94, palm oil ~RM3040;
Today:
*GARw - sold remainder @.16 with slight gain while palm oil price weakens

11 July (Mon):
This Week:
*Straits Asia - bt @3.03, Macd (turned +ve) n ADX crossover w volume.

10 July (Sun):
Overall Market:
* On Friday Dow (-62), S&P, Nasdaq all closed lower by more than 0.4%; FTSE -63, Palm Oil +RM23, Gold up to 1545; oil opened higher but ended down to 96.4 -2.19

*GARw - (Golden Agri warrant) sold some @.17 with a gain of $0.02 ~10+% while Palm oil price recovers
Watchlist:
- Straits Asia, GAR, F&N, OCBC, ...
- SJM (bullish cup & handle), Johnson E., Ch.Metal Recycl., Taifeng, Shangrila (Break Res 20.0), PetroChina, Hangten, ..

6 July (Wed):
Overall Market:
*Overnite, Dow and S&P made slight adjustment ~-0.3% while Nasdaq is level; Gold and oil are up at ~1510+ and ~96+ respectively while palm Oil continues retreat but stay above MYR3000
*Singapore shares may be buoyed by higher commodity prices, but concerned about spreading Europe debt woes.

4 July (Mon): (US market closed for holiday)
Overall Market:
*On Friday, Dow + 168 Nasdaq +42; metals & commod mostly edge up: Gold ~1494, Silver ~34, Oil ~95 but Palm Oil down ~3036
Region:
*Thailand election decided smoothly
*Asian markets get lift from exporters and financials
Local:
- Tiger Air dropped ~10% tis morn upon Australia ban
This Week:
*CWT sold te remaining tis morn @1.35 as the bearish sign shooting star appeared on Friday
Watchlist: (eying on rebound play)
- F&N, OCBC, KepCorp, ..
- Johnson E., Ch.Metal Recycl., Taifeng, Luk Fook, ..

1 July (Fri): (HKG market closed for holiday)
Overall Market:
Overnite Dow continued its mini-rally upon encouraging US data and eased Greece concern; metals steady while oils softened after recent rebound
- NASDAQ+25, FTSE +80; Gold 1501+, Silver 34+; palm oil -37, crude oil ~94.
This Week:
S'pore:
*CWT resumed trading after acquisition announcement, this morn sold some @1.35 to PP (small gain of $.08) on R1(1st Resistance), may sell more at next resistance.
*Mapletree IT: sold some @1.17 (with thin gain of .02) to reserve some capital.
*Simulated, paper trade (for practice/short of fund):
- OCBC: on 30-Jun, upon BR9.24 (Bt@9.25, sold@9.40, simulated gain of .15)
- F&N: on 30-Jun, upon pennant breakout 5.70, target R1-5.90 .....(highest 5.87 today)
HKG:
*Dongfeng #489: closed @15 to reserve some capital, after rebound from ~$13.50 on China policy relax of vehicle control (still shy of $16 level before vehicle control announcement)
*Johnson E.#179: Bt @5.07, in initial stage of turnaround (annual results +136%; concern: copper price)
- Sands China: missed its BP19.38 early this week, didn't chase beyond 3%, closed $21 yest.
Watchlists:
- (HK) Dongfeng M., Johnson E., Ch.Metal Recycl., Taifeng (#873), Luk Fook, ..
- (SP) GARw, Mapletree Ind. (block trades), OCBC, ..

Defining Bull Market Based on MA250

Bull Market Stages:
Stage 1 - Index crossing and staying above MA250
Stage 2 - MA50 crossing above MA250, called "golden cross"
Stage3 - MA250 moving up, usually the uptrend will maintain quite a long period

Examples:

• On Feb-6-2006, Shanghai A index closed at 1349 when MA 50 crossed MA250 s (golden cross), the index accumulated a gain of 360% reaching 6429
• On 1-Jun-2009, the golden cross appeared in Shanghai A and Taiwan market indices (entering Bull Stage 2) while other markets (US, UK, and Asia) still await in Stage 1. On 16-Jun-2009, the golden cross appeared in S'pore STI index, hence also entered Bull Stage 2; around mid-Sep 2009, MA250 started moving up, technically entering Bull Stage 3.
  

(Source: RBC-IS(Asia), 01-06-2009)

My CPF Investment

My shares portfolio with CPF fund:
1)M1 - selected based on high dividend 6-7% (attributed to a minimum of 80 dividend distribution), plus potential business growth due to new NGNBN (next-gen broadband network) service launch in the near future.
2)Parkway Health Reit - selected based on high dividend ~6% (attributed to steady rental income stream from health industry tenants).
3)Euyansang - selected for its long-term steady growth (achieved 2-digit revenue compound annual growth in the past ten years), being the TCM sector leader in SE Asia with an established brand name.
Strategy: Accumulate on dips.

(update: 8-6-2011)

Market Update - June 2011

24 June (Fri):
Overall Market:
(MarketWatch.com) Overnite Dow staged a late rebound to trim early loss of 200pts to only 59 (to reflect on mixed reports:
- (i) a plan to release petro from global reserves hammed oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chervon; and (ii) Greek authorities have agreed to a new 5-year austerity plan to avoid a sovereign default).
- NASDAQ+17, FTSE -98; Gold 1520+, Silver 34+; palm oil -42, crude oil ~92.
- at noon, STI slightly up ~8 while HSI edged up ~300 pts.
Last week:
- quiet while market mood is soft
This Week:
- today sold Tech Oil&Gas @1.01 PP with a gain of $0.1, as it softens after 2 days of surge from $0.90
Watchlists:
- (HK) Dongfeng M., Johnson E. (rebound)
- (SP) GARw (accumulating), Mapletree Ind. (PP), KepCorp (rebound)

19 June (Sun):
Friday closing:
* STI 3,005 -14, HSI 21,695 -257; Dow 12,004 +42, NASDAQ -7, FTSE +16
* Oil 92.9 -2, Gold 1540 +10.9

17 June (Fri):
Today:
- market is weak
- accumulate GARw on dip at .145 and .15; Golden Agri surged at the close & reversed from -.01 to +.02 to close at .685

15 June (Wed):
Overall Market:
- overnite Dow +123, NASDQQ+36, FTSE +29; metals mostly edged up: Gold 1526 +0.2%, Silver 35.6; most oils (palm oil -.2%, crude oil future ~99, ..) slightly off.
- today STI slightly up while HSI correction continues
Last week:
-Long KepCorp @11.16 on rebound off Sup 11.06
This Week:
- closed KepCorp SL@10.96, lost 0.20, rebound didn't materialise :(
Watchlist:
- (HK) Haier, Dongfeng M., Johnson E.
- (SP) CWT, GARw, Mapletree Ind. (-)Gent SP, F&N, ..

7 June, 12.40pm:
(my blog resumed after HongKong trip)

Overall Market:
- overnite Dow -61 , FTSE +8; today STI & HSI continue correction (-1, -165)
Commodity Sector (extracted from Reuter/UOBKH morning news):
-Gold hits one-month high on weak U.S. outlook. SPOT GOLD 1543.89 +0.05% +0.840
-Oil falls on OPEC hike possibility, demand concern. US CRUDE 98.8 -0.21% -0.210
Commodity Counters:
-Olam International confirmed plans to raise S$740 million through a placement of new shares with an eye on future acquisitions. The company plans to sell 94.4 million shares to institutional investors and another 94.4 million shares to Singapore state investor Temasek at S$2.60 a share. The offer price represents a discount of 8.4 percent from the weighted average price of S$2.8381 on June 3.
-MERMAID MARITIME said it plans to consolidate its drilling business under a new unit Asia Offshore Drilling, which will list on Norwegian stock exchange Oslo Axess by end of the month.
-THE THINK ENVIRONMENTAL proposed a change in its core business activity to the mining of precious minerals and natural resources, and said it plans to invest about $41 million in its gold mining assets. The firm will dispose of assets in its green environmental business and change its name to LionGold Corp. The changes are subject to the approval of shareholders.
-Golden Agri Resources' crude palm oil production could rise by more than 10 percent this year if weather conditions remain favourable, its executive director said on Tuesday.
Last week:
-bgt Mapletree IT @1.15, it seems building up at te narrow range of 1.15-1.17
-added more CWT @1.26, on te back of increased vol + gd recom (UOBKH) based on promising expansion into commodity biz (TP~2.0)
This week:
- shopping for any good values during te correction
Watchlist:
- (HK) commodity sector: copper, aluminium n oil; gaming sector (Galaxy, SJM, ..) ; Ch. financing sector, ..
- (SP) CWT, GARw, F&N, (-)Gent SP, TigerAir, ..