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This blog is mainly for the convenience of archiving my investing thoughts and notes, and sharing with my close kakis. Hope you enjoy and participate in this sharing of notes and comments. Let's profit together from the bull ride as well as from mitigating the bear.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Latest News 市场动向


30 Oct, 2010

>STI View: Watch for correction

With quarterly momentum breaking down after a negative divergence with the STI, and a similar formation by 21-day RSI, the market is probably ready for a good correction. Support/breakdown is at 3,120 and this looks likely to be breached. More meaningful support appears at 3,000. — Goola Warden


Straits Times Index gained 0.4% to 3,142.62 at the close. The gauge fell 1% this week, trimming the month’s advance to 1.5%. Shares on the measure trade at an average 15.3 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.4 times at the beginning of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

>The following shares were among the most active in the market.
+) Eu Yan Sang, advanced 1.7% to 91 cents. The company said first-quarter profit increased 14% to $4.1 million.
+) Genting Singapore gained 0.5% to $2.17.
-) Indofood Agri Resources, fell 1.9% to $2.60. The company said third-quarter net profit fell 18 percent year-on-year on the strengthening of the Indonesian rupiah and a smaller increase in the fair value of its biological assets.
+) Jardine Cycle & Carriage, rose 0.4% to $39.30. Its unit PT Astra International, Indonesia’s biggest automotive retailer, posted a 37% jump in third-quarter net income to 3.92 trillion rupiah.

Other results announcements:
+) UOB beats forecasts, reported 3Q10 net profit of $688 million, up 37.5% y-o-y and 14.3% q-o-q.
+) OUE poised for office space recovery
-) CapitaLand's 3Q profit declines after divesting malls

29 Oct, 2010


经济新闻
[07:13] 紐約股市三大指數漲跌不一
[07:17] 歐洲三大股市上升
[07:21] 紐約金價大升1.5%
[07:24] 國際油價小幅回升

>
The Dow Jones industrial average inched 0.11 percent lower to 11,113.95. S&P500 Index was up 0.11 percent at 1,183.78. Nasdaq Index gained 0.16 percent at 2,507.37.

>Straits Times Index rose 0.16 percent on Thursday to 3,129.50 points.

+) CapitaMalls Asia: 3Q10 net profit climbs 14% to S$68m.
-) STATS ChipPac: Reports 3.6% lower 3Q10 net profit of US$24.2m.

.) Tiger Airways: Signs multi-million dollar financing deal with Standard Chartered.
+) Top Global: Stock surges after company signals more property projects are on the card.

+) Yangzijiang: Enters a business and technical cooperation MOU with Taiwan-listed CSBC Corporation.
+) Technics Oil and Gas’ FY2010 Net Profit Attributable to Equity Holders jumps 165% to S$16.38 million and Dividends of 10.5 cents per ordinary share declared for the year.

27 Oct, 2010
Asian stocks weighed by U.S. outlook worries - AFP

Stock markets mostly fell in Asia Wednesday on uncertainty about the US outlook and lower-than-forecast Australian inflation data that dampened rate-hike expectations.

  • 17.30 SP - STI dropped 38 pts



[16:10] 港股收市瀉436點 [新聞]
[15:23] 滬指跌44點失守3千點 [新聞]
[分析]
  • 11.00 SP - SGX rose 3% in morning trade on short covering
  • 08.30 SP - Dow closed flat overnite ahead of next week's election n likely federal reserve announcement. Dow +5, FTSE -44
  • Local news: Suntec Reit announced prop buying interest; XinRen to debut today
26 Oct, 2010

25 Oct, 2010
GMT +8
[12:41] 港股早市升220點 [新聞]
[11:38] 滬指升逾1%重上三千點 [新聞]
[11:50] 星澳交易所合併 與港相爭 [新聞]
[11:13] 東京股市計劃縮短午休 [新聞]

... 更多


9.30am SP
World/US Market Mixed:
- DJI -0.1%, S&P +0.2%
Local:
- STI retreated
+) Keppel 2 more rigs to build, contract value extended to $700M
-) SGX takeover bid for AGX overpriced!?
- results issued: CMT, Ezra, ..





22-10-2010: US Blue chips bouncing back ...

US Markets Marginally Higher with the DJIA advancing 0.4% to 11,146.5 pts and the S&P500 Index up 0.1% to 1,180.3 pts on the back of optimism over better corporate earnings. Bank of America continued to be in the spotlight, declining 3.3% to close at US$11.28 on the back of foreclosure and mortgage problems.

STI Falls 0.5% to 3163.5, Dragged Lower by Bank and Property stocks
as concerns about compressed net interest margins and cooling property markets resurfaced. The broader market saw 233 gainers and 245 losers, with total volume amounting to S$2.6b.

- The index value fell below its seven-day trailing value for the first time since the rally began in late August. The adjusted support (61.8% retracement level) likely at 3,030.

- Mapletree Industrial Trust began its trading debut with a bang, advancing a whopping 24.7% to close at S$1.16.21-10-2010 08:19:40-

> Wall Street rose overnight as a fall in the dollar spurred buying in industrial and commodity-linked shares and strong corporate earnings added to gains.

Wall St bounces on weak dollar, strong earnings. Bonds steady before expected Fed purchases. Dollar struggles on Fed view, Aussie firms. Gold rises as Fed easing report pummels dollar. Oil gains nearly 3 pct as dollar dips, equities up.

> Local stocks:

+) CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST said on Thursday its third quarter distributable income rose 7.9 percent to S$56.2 million ($43.16 million) from a year ago mainly due to lower property tax and operating expenses.

-) Keppel Land - posted a 10.7 percent fall in third quarter net profit from a year ago as revenues from the hotel and resort and property trading segments shrank.

20-10-2010 11:46:57

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks slide after China rate rise
> Asia stocks fall on China rate rise, Nikkei down over 2 pct * Dollar holds gains, commodity prices stabilise.

>The dollar stabilised, with analysts saying further gains in the U.S. currency may be limited given expectations the Federal Reserve will ease policy again as early as next month.

-) Kepland: affected by profit taking n concerns China's surprise interest rate hike could hit demand for Chinese properties.

19 Oct. 10
Global/US:
> US dollar edged up from firm Fed stand, oil slides
-) Apple poor result -> tech stocks affected

Local:
+) KepLand secured land deals in Chengdu
+) SemMarine secured new orders worth $300M+
-) SGX issued poorer result => ST weakness

Agenda:
-) means negative; +) means positive; .) or others mean neutral

Monday, October 18, 2010

19-10-10 Investment/Trading Strategy 中长期策略

1) Investing in proxy to economic growth and market boom,
- banks, properties, SGX, GentSP, selected stocks of china play and health industry
- precious resources: gold, silver, palm oil

2) Trading blue-chip laggards and selected gd median caps, till STI reach 3500 level.

/update: 21.10.10

19-10-10 ST Announcement Play 炒业绩公告

To announce results soon, some ST plays in: (result)

x SGX 18 Oct (dip)
x M1 19 Oct
x NOL 19 Oct
x Capitaland 20 Oct
x CapitaComm 20 Oct (ok)
x KepLand 20 Oct (dip)
x Keppel 21 Oct (+ve)
x WingTai 25 Oct (dip)

- SemMar: 4 Nov
- GenSP 12 Nov
- ....

'x'= announced

Watch Lists 观察名单

SP List:

>Marine: KepCorp*, SembMar, Cosco, YZJ, NOL (xBR2.10).
>Health: Euyanseng* (xB), OSIM, Biosensor.
>Commodity: GAR(consolid..>0.7), Noble, Wilmar(consolid..>6.0?), Tech Oil & Gas (xd.105), Mewah (new IPO)
>Prop/Trust: KepLand, CapitaComm (BR1.49), .., P.LifeReit, .., AscendasReit (BR2.14).
>Consumer/Utility: F&N (xBR6.39), M1(BR2.3HH), ..
>Industrial/Manuf.: SembCorp*, Armstrong (BR.445), ChipEngS (BR.40), HL Asia (BR3.6).
>Bank/Others: OCBC, SGX, GenSP (consolid..>2.0), ..

HK List/others: /* under review */

- china H-shares: bank, resources, consumer sectors, n telecom
- resource & others: gold, silver, palm oil, ...

'x'= triggered; xd= x-dividend; xB=xBonus
/last update: 22.11.10 14:00

18-10-10 SGX n STI

Singapore Exchange is scheduled to announce its 1Q11 results on Monday, October 18 before market opens. Daiwa Securities is forecasting a revenue increase of just 2.8% year-on-year, to $178.2 million, and a decline in net profit of 8.2% y-o-y to $86.4 million due to higher technology expense and depreciation. But further on, Daiwa is bullish. “We believe the pipeline of pending initial public offerings (IPOs) will boost trading activity. The total amount raised for 2010 is projected to exceed $8 billion,” it states in a report out today. Hence, it is raising its six-month target price to $10.60 from $8.94. This valuation takes into account a forecast average daily turnover of $2.3 billion for FY11 which includes the impact from the trading of ADRs (American Depository Receipts) in Singapore. Daiwa has an outperform rating for SGX. The counter last traded at $10.12, up 21.5% year-to-date.

STI Chart View
At the moment, the STI (3,204) is facing upward pressures. However, short-term indicators are beginning to fatigue and the 3,200 level may pose a psychological resistance. Any retreat would be temporary and find support at 3,120. An earlier break above 2,900 gave a measuring objective of 3,400 and this still stands. — Goola Warden
/Disclaimer: The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use of information or opinions in this newsletter. The information and opinions are not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell any of the companies discussed. /

18-10-10 Palm Oil Laggards Play

To play laggards like: GAR, Wilmar, First Res, n Kencana

* Wilmar to wait BR6.48
* GAR already quite hi, today managed further to 0.70, now back to 0.67, think out of steam (today cleared my remaining holding)
- Kencana PE very hi (~40x)
- First Res seems to hv more dwn side than upside, n to reach the top of channel soon. To review if KL lower.